Leaders’ election debate analysis: Clear winner emerges from slow bicycle race

You couldn’t see behind the rostrums, but it felt at times as if each of these protagonists was clutching a Ming vase with grim determination throughout. All three were so intent on not offering up a flub or a flounder for the meme clippers of social media that they ended up not saying very much of interest at all.
It’s unrealistic to expect much substance from these affairs. The stakes were clear for the three leaders. For Simon Harris the task was simply to steady the storm-tossed Fine Gael ship. This he probably accomplished, despite seeming simultaneously harried and over-caffeinated. He really should stop muttering.
Mary Lou McDonald needed to build on the sense of renewed confidence which Sinn Féin has been displaying in recent days. Her plan seemed to be to play the hits that had served her well on the same stage in 2020, including the same Tweedledum and Tweedledee line. Last time out it was a zinger; this time it fell flat. Nevertheless, she was vigorous in her attacks on her two opponents, tagging them as the poster boys of the crash and austerity, but much less sure-footed when quizzed on her own policies. Not for the first time this year, she appeared under-briefed.
Micheál Martin looked exactly as you’d expect a man to look whose party, having spent the last five years as the laggard of the Big Three, had suddenly been catapulted into first place four days before an election. Tetchy Micheál was replaced by avuncular Micheál and, in the absence of a standout performance from his rivals, he probably emerged as the winner of this slow bicycle race.
Entering into this debate, the stakes were highest for Harris. The outgoing Taoiseach has spent the guts of five days on the back foot, with questions asked of his temperament, empathy and sincerity, and a manner that has seemed frenetic at times. In studio, the three party leaders stood on what looked like a literal target.
Many floating voters, having seen Harris’s now infamous petulance on the campaign trail, will be making a judgment call about him. Given that Fine Gael built an almost presidential-style campaign around him, and this has ramifications for the party’s vote share as a whole. Tightly coiled, he spoke a mile a minute, as though a podcast on double speed.
Occasionally, he almost veered into stump speech territory, repeating his automatic line that he had only been Taoiseach for seven months. His answers were sometimes hard to digest, packed densely without drawing a breath.
[ Five key moments from the leaders’ debate: ‘You brought the crash, and you brought austerity’Opens in new window ]
Strangely, McDonald stumbled a little on Sinn Féin’s own housing policy, surely a moment she should have landed a clear and authoritative point, given that it’s the reason so many people vote or consider voting for her party. She was, however, the voice of the reality of the crisis. Ringing that alarm is important to those experiencing it.
She also had the best lines; “you brought the crash … and you brought austerity”, “there is political life beyond Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael”, “it’s raining really hard now for lots of people”. Harris’s lines did not connect. His persistent interrupting of McDonald emanated a brittle impatience.
Martin showed his experience. Performing the role (some would say eye roll) of the status quo statesman, he obfuscated, but was also calm – besides quite randomly challenging Miriam O’Callaghan at one point – and outlined policy positions, and countered when he chose to. He couldn’t, however, make a definitive argument beyond the parameters of the status quo.
A three-way tightrope performance with no calamities, some stumbles, but there’s an open-ended feeling to this contest, as the tension builds.
Often annoying, and seldom enlightening. Too many topics were attempted, and the result was too little forensic debate. The three party leaders seemed to have ended up in a panel discussion where they were sometimes accessories rather than main actors.
Two big things emerged, but both were omissions. There was no effective probing and no satisfactory answers on how lavish promises would be funded. Neither Harris nor McDonald would say what part of their plans would be dropped if the economic tide went out. Martin did offer to drop Fianna Fáil’s tax plans to better preserve the tax base. In what may have been an attempt at humour Harris committed Fine Gael to staying within the outgoing Government’s 5 per cent spending limit. On the economy generally, and on climate change, debate was derisory. The necessity to move on to the next topic assisted serial evasion.
[ No knock out blows in oversold leaders’ debate: Miriam Lord rates the performances of Harris, Martin and McDonaldOpens in new window ]
Secondly, there were no standout moments. Nobody landed a killer blow, or badly tripped up. The usually super fluent Harris was a little off his game. Notwithstanding her reference to the “two lads” on either side of her, McDonald looked a lot more like one of the lads than she did in 2020. The contrast now is less clear because all are swimming in the same pool of promises. Martin was unremarkable, but did enough to stay ahead slightly in a poor contest.
Harris repeated that he was Taoiseach for only seven months presumably to emphasise the “new” in flagging new energy. McDonald was good at pinning their record on her opponents but less convincing in explaining the detail of her own case. Martin mastered a middling way of not saying much, and that was enough on a night worth forgetting.